German companies are heading toward their highest number of bankruptcies in 14 years, with more than 200,000 jobs at risk this year alone, according to Allianz Trade’s latest assessment.
The credit insurer projects 24,650 insolvencies for Germany in 2026, a 2.4 percent increase from last year’s already elevated level of 24,064 cases recorded by Destatis. This would mark the worst year for corporate failures since 2012, reversing a brief post-pandemic lull and surpassing even the peak seen during the 2009 financial crisis.
Already in the first quarter of 2026, insolvencies surged to their highest level since early 2005, with 4,573 filings recorded by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle. That figure represents a 71 percent jump over the average March from 2016 to 2019, the last full pre-pandemic year, and continues a trend that began in January, when filings also exceeded the same month in 2025.
Allianz Trade attributes the rise to two overlapping conflicts: the war in Gaza and the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute. Milo Bogaerts, the firm’s head for Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, said the Middle East conflict has already left a measurable imprint on the German economy, while the U.S. Trade war remains unresolved and continues to disrupt supply chains and export markets.
For more on this story, see German households face lowest purchasing power since 2019 amid oil-driven downturn.
The impact is not evenly distributed. Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, noted that energy-intensive sectors — transport, chemicals, and metallurgy — are bearing the brunt of the pressure, as disruptions in energy flows and rising input costs squeeze margins already thinned by weaker global demand.
Internationally, the outlook is even starker. Allianz Trade forecasts a six percent rise in corporate bankruptcies worldwide this year, surpassing the German increase. The firm revised its global projection upward specifically due to the escalation in the Middle East, which it says is amplifying volatility in commodity markets and freight logistics.
Despite the grim near-term forecast, there is a sliver of expected relief. Allianz Trade anticipates a reversal in Germany starting in 2027, with insolvencies declining by two percent to 24,150 cases. The firm bases this outlook on the assumption that wartime economic strains will ease and that government stimulus measures will begin to take hold.
Whether that turnaround materializes depends on how quickly geopolitical tensions de-escalate and whether fiscal support reaches vulnerable mid-sized enterprises before more succumb to liquidity strain. For now, the data shows a clear and accelerating deterioration in corporate health across Germany’s industrial core.
How reliable is the forecast of over 200,000 jobs at risk?
This figure is a modeled estimate by Allianz Trade based on historical correlations between insolvency filings and job losses, not a direct count of announced layoffs. The insurer uses its internal data on company size and sector exposure to project employment impacts, which it updates quarterly.
Why does Allianz Trade expect a turnaround in 2027?
The firm assumes that the geopolitical pressures driving the current surge — particularly the Middle East conflict and trade frictions — will diminish over time, allowing normal business conditions to return. It also expects government economic stimulus to begin supporting demand and investment by then.
