Minutes before Iran announced the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, traders sold nearly $760 million in oil futures betting prices would fall — and were proven right when Brent crude dropped to $88.73 a barrel.
The trades occurred between 14:24 and 14:25 CET on April 17, involving 7,990 Brent futures contracts, the largest single-day movement recorded that day, according to Reuters.
At 12:45 CET the following day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on X that the strait would remain open for all merchant vessels for the duration of the existing ceasefire, a decision later confirmed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Truth Social.
Brent crude settled at $88.73 per barrel and U.S. WTI at $84.44, with heating oil down about 10% and gasoline roughly 5% lower — marking the second-largest single-day decline in oil prices since the Iran conflict began.
Regulators launch probe into pattern of suspiciously timed trades
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has opened an investigation into whether the April 17 trade constituted insider manipulation, citing similar transactions in recent weeks.
On April 7, just hours before a U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced, traders placed bets worth approximately $950 million on falling oil prices. On March 23, investors sold $500 million in oil futures 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, triggering a 15% oil price drop.
Combined, these transactions exceed $2.2 billion in value, each executed minutes or hours before politically sensitive decisions that moved markets.
Experts warn derivative markets vulnerable to policy leaks
Several market analysts told Reuters they are concerned that geopolitical decisions — whether military or diplomatic — could be exploited for profit in opaque derivatives trading.
The CFTC, which oversees U.S. Futures markets and protects participants from fraud, said its inquiry is standard procedure when unusual trading precedes major announcements.
Markets rallied on broader Middle East de-escalation hopes
Separate from the oil futures activity, U.S. Equity markets reacted positively to the Hormuz opening, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs for three consecutive sessions and the Dow Jones posting its strongest close since late February.
Traders cited Iran’s decision to allow humanitarian shipping through the strait during the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire as a sign of reducing regional tensions, boosting investor sentiment across sectors.
Unrelated federal actions drew attention same week
On the same day the CFTC investigation became public, a U.S. Federal commission unanimously approved the design for a gold-colored triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery, despite concerns about its height affecting the Washington skyline.
What specific trades triggered the CFTC investigation?
The investigation focuses on the sale of 7,990 Brent futures contracts worth about $760 million between 14:24 and 14:25 CET on April 17, minutes before Iran announced the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why do regulators suspect these trades may have been based on non-public information?
Regulators cite the timing — extremely close to a major geopolitical announcement — and a pattern of similar large bets placed ahead of U.S.-Iran ceasefire news and delayed military strikes, suggesting possible advance knowledge of policy decisions.
